AGP Executive Report

Ethiopia Growth Outlook: Ethiopia projects 10.1% economic growth for 2026/27, with industry expected to rise 12.6% and agriculture 7.6%, as Finance Minister Ahmed Shide links momentum to exports, FDI and improved farm productivity. Budget & Reforms: The government’s record draft federal budget (over 2.33 trillion birr) targets continued infrastructure, agriculture, industrial development and social services while keeping macro stability on track. Industrial Transformation Policy: Addis Ababa’s industrial push includes performance-based income tax incentives for investors under regulation 586/2026, shifting support to measurable results. Vehicle Registration Modernization: Addis Ababa begins issuing new national vehicle plates with a unified “ETH” format and RFID/QR-linked databases to curb fraud and streamline enforcement. Hospitality Investment: MIDROC Ethiopia and IFC back an $80m Sheraton Addis expansion and refurbishment, aiming for green-certified hotels and job creation ahead of major events. Food Security Skills: CIMMYT and Ambo University train Ethiopian researchers in applied research and statistical modelling using R to turn farm data into usable evidence. Ethiopia in Regional Trade Talks: Ethiopia is among delegations at the 13th BRICS Urbanisation Forum in New Delhi, where ministers discuss inclusive, resilient and digitally enabled city development.

BRICS & Health/Pharma Sovereignty: BRICS countries are pushing healthcare resilience and “pharmaceutical sovereignty,” citing lessons from COVID-19 and calling for stronger global health governance and medicine-vaccine cooperation. Ethiopia Budget & Reforms: Ethiopia’s draft federal budget (2.339 trillion birr) aims to sustain gains from homegrown economic reforms, with continued investment in infrastructure, agriculture, industry and social services while keeping macro stability. Food Inflation Watch: S&P Global warns food prices could become a bigger inflation driver in emerging markets as fertiliser costs rise and Middle East-linked supply risks feed into transport and food costs. Climate Shock Signals for Food Security: El Niño has returned, with drought and monsoon disruption risks that can hit farm output and raise volatility. Ethiopia Food Security Skills: CIMMYT and Ambo University trained Ethiopian researchers in applied research and statistical modelling to turn farm data into better decisions for productivity and resilience. Refugee & Host Livelihoods: DREAMS programme results in Uganda and Ethiopia show higher consumption, doubled savings and asset gains for refugee and host households through entrepreneurship support plus market access. Digital Finance Push: Connected Banking Summit 2026 returns to Addis Ababa to accelerate digital banking modernization across emerging markets. Vehicle Registration Overhaul: Addis Ababa begins issuing new national vehicle plates with RFID/QR features to curb fraud and streamline enforcement. Tourism Investment: IFC and MIDROC Ethiopia secured an $80m loan for Sheraton Addis expansion and a new green-certified Sheraton property ahead of COP32 2027. Circular Economy Boost: Green entrepreneurs in Ethiopia’s circular economy and waste-recycling ecosystem were supported through incubator and lab programs, backed by partners including the IKEA Foundation. Banking Expansion Interest: Standard Bank/Stanbic is weighing a possible greenfield entry into Ethiopia despite the 49% foreign ownership cap.

Hospitality & Tourism Finance: IFC will lend $80m to MIDROC Ethiopia to refurbish Sheraton Addis and build a new Sheraton hotel in Addis Ababa, with the project aiming at Ethiopia’s first green-certified hotels and jobs ahead of COP32 in 2027. Housing Construction Tech: Ethiopia’s Council of Ministers visited a demo site showing 3D printing, light steel prefabrication, and container housing to cut build times to days or weeks. Banking & Investment Climate: Stanbic Bank/Standard Bank leadership says it is weighing a greenfield entry into Ethiopia despite the 49% foreign ownership cap, citing confidence in start-from-scratch precedents. Circular Economy & Waste: Reach for Change Ethiopia and partners praised green entrepreneurs in circular economy and waste solutions, backed by IKEA Foundation support. Agriculture Investment: Ethiopia reports strong progress from agricultural investment—millions of hectares under projects and efforts to expand contract farming, finance access, and locally developed technologies. Protected Areas Trade-offs: A Nature study says Ethiopia’s protected areas reduced deforestation and farm expansion, but nearby communities may face lower food security and wellbeing. Energy & Renewables Context: A wider Africa energy update highlights the shift toward solar, wind and storage for faster, cheaper power delivery. Forex Watch: The birr saw a modest, orderly slide in early June, with rates moving in increments rather than panic.

Banking & FDI: Standard Bank/Stanbic is weighing a greenfield move into Ethiopia despite the 49% foreign ownership cap, arguing it can still build from scratch and citing early progress in its telecom-linked client base. Circular Economy & Jobs: Reach for Change Ethiopia graduated its 2025 Green Entrepreneurs cohort and opened the 2026 intake, backing youth-led waste management, recycling and circular production with IKEA Foundation support. Tourism Finance: IFC approved an $80m loan to MIDROC Ethiopia’s hospitality arm to refurbish Sheraton Addis and develop a new Sheraton hotel, targeting thousands of jobs for young people and women. Agriculture Exports: Ethiopia’s agricultural investment push is credited with expanding land under investment, boosting contract farming and modern practices, and supporting export earnings and import substitution. Construction Tech: Ethiopia’s housing drive showcased 3D printing, light steel prefabrication and container-based solutions to cut build times to days or weeks. Mining Operations: Akobo Minerals says mining and processing activities are largely back to normal after April fuel disruptions, with processing of newly mined ore set for June. Energy Transition: AP reports Africa’s power pipeline is shifting toward solar, wind and storage for faster, cheaper supply—while financing costs remain a major hurdle. Ethiopia in Global Mobility: Spiro’s $215m fundraising aims to expand battery-swapping electric motorcycle infrastructure, including plans for Ethiopia. Policy & Market Signals: Ethiopia’s draft federal budget approval points to a push for faster transformation, while a separate report flags a managed, modest birr slide that reflects ongoing FX market division.

Cybersecurity & Trade Rules: Ethiopia’s House of People’s Representatives approved draft laws on cybersecurity for key infrastructures and a revised customs proclamation, aiming to curb cyberattacks, reduce contraband, and support manufacturing and investment. Housing Tech: PM Abiy Ahmed highlighted rapid-construction methods for the national housing program after inaugurating Woldia projects using 3D printing, light steel prefabrication, and container housing. Finance Sector Openness: Ethiopia’s capital markets regulator licensed United Capital’s investment banking subsidiary, marking the first foreign investment bank license in Ethiopia and boosting licensed capital market players. Banking Expansion Watch: Stanbic is reportedly considering a wholly owned banking operation in Ethiopia as foreign ownership rules reshape entry strategies. Agribusiness Innovation: Red Fox Ethiopia inaugurated the country’s first beneficial insect breeding center to cut reliance on imported pest-control inputs and reduce chemical risks for farm workers. Energy & Industry Context: Ethiopia’s push for power and industrial growth continues amid regional supply concerns, while Ethiopia’s election and governance backdrop remains tense with conflict affecting voter participation.

Cybersecurity & Trade Rules: Ethiopia’s House of People’s Representatives approved draft proclamations on cybersecurity for key infrastructures and a revised customs proclamation, aiming to curb cyberattacks, reduce contraband, and support fair customs and the growing manufacturing sector. Housing Tech Push: Deputy PM Temesgen Tiruneh highlighted Woldia’s housing demo using 3D printing, light steel prefabrication, and container housing—showing faster delivery of quality homes for the national housing program. Aviation Expansion: Ethiopian Airlines is evaluating bids for 25 new narrow-body jets (Airbus A220/E2, Embraer E2, Boeing 737 MAX 7), with a decision expected within three months as fuel costs tied to regional conflict pressure operations. Industrial Growth & Local Brands: The Made in Ethiopia (Ethiopia Tamirt) movement was credited with boosting domestic demand, creating jobs, and generating foreign exchange. Ebola Preparedness: Africa CDC and WHO launched a unified six-month Ebola preparedness and response plan for June–November 2026, targeting $518m for surveillance, labs, clinical care, and logistics. Energy Security Angle: A new policy focus is emerging on renewables, storage, and EVs as geopolitical shocks expose risks from imported fossil fuels.

BRICS Agriculture Talks: A five-day BRICS Agriculture Working Group meeting kicked off in Indore, with Ethiopia among members, aiming to align on food security, climate-smart farming, agricultural trade, digital agriculture, and farmer welfare, ahead of a joint declaration. Food Safety Push: Ethiopia’s EFDA says unsafe food is still a major illness driver and calls for stronger coordination across regulators, industry, academia, and partners, urging food businesses to adopt quality management systems and expand lab capacity. Dairy Innovation: EIAR launched “Etittuu,” a probiotic starter culture to improve milk fermentation, with officials linking it to higher dairy productivity and reduced reliance on imports. Trade & Investment Linkages: Ethiopia’s honorary consul general in Pakistan met Sindh’s governor to discuss expanding bilateral trade and industrial partnerships, highlighting opportunities in pharmaceuticals, textiles, leather, plastics, chemicals, and packaging. Ebola Preparedness Funding: Africa CDC and WHO launched a unified continental “One Response” plan for the Ebola outbreak, targeting a six-month response and raising $518m to strengthen surveillance, labs, clinical care, and logistics.

Food Safety Push: Ethiopia’s EFDA says unsafe food still drives illness and calls for tighter collaboration across regulators, industry, labs, and academia, urging food firms to adopt quality management systems. Dairy Innovation: EIAR launched “Etittuu,” a probiotic starter culture to boost milk fermentation and cut reliance on imported dairy inputs. Industrial Policy Focus: A new piece highlights Ethiopia’s shift from “factory count” industrialization toward productivity, technology, domestic participation, and higher-value sectors like agro-processing, construction materials, logistics, and green manufacturing. Solar Manufacturing Watch: Toyo announced a $357m, 1.5GW HJT solar cell plant in Houston, noting Ethiopia operations are already affected by U.S. AD/CVD scrutiny. Aviation Growth: Ethiopian Airlines is weighing orders for 25 new narrow-body jets within three months to expand regional and cargo capacity amid higher fuel costs. Energy Resilience Research: A study warns Africa’s solar power pools face rising “synchronization risk” under climate change, threatening regional reliability. Ebola Response: UNICEF is scaling up emergency supplies and logistics for Ebola containment in DRC and neighbors, citing urgent funding needs.

Red Sea Push: Ethiopia’s election week saw a sharper push for Red Sea access, with officials framing it as a “reasonable” and “fair” path to development despite legal constraints and Egypt-linked tensions. Ethiopian Airlines Fleet & Fuel: Ethiopian Airlines says it will decide within three months on new regional jet orders, while grappling with higher jet-fuel costs after the Iran war; it has already shifted fuel sourcing and is using route rationalization plus fares and fuel surcharges to protect margins. Regional Energy Connectivity: Ethiopian Electric Power says it’s accelerating renewable generation and cross-border power links, noting power exports remain under 10% and that studies are underway to expand sales beyond current partners. IMF Support for Ethiopia: The IMF is stepping up assistance tied to the Iran-related shock, with Ethiopia’s board set to consider accelerated access to a $200m tranche alongside a cleared $468m release. Election Count Scrutiny: The National Election Board dismissed two staff for procedural violations as counting continues, with turnout figures still under verification and contested digital materials circulating. Clean Mobility in Ethiopia: Ethiopia’s gas-car ban and local participation push are creating openings for cleaner transport investors, as the country moves toward electric mobility ecosystems. YADEA Electric Two-Wheelers: YADEA debuted its Africa-focused commercial e-motorcycle KIFA at Autoexpo Kenya 2026, building on Ethiopia sales of over 48,000 units and targeting battery-swapping partnerships. Coffee Resilience: Nestlé is advancing climate-resilient, high-yield robusta varieties with partners in the Ivory Coast, aiming to protect supply as arabica faces rising risks.

Aviation & Fuel Costs: Ethiopian Airlines says it will likely make fleet decisions soon on new regional and cargo aircraft, but higher jet fuel costs tied to the Middle East conflict are squeezing margins as fuel rises from ~40% to 54% of expenses; the carrier is also rationalizing routes and using fares plus a fuel surcharge while supply issues are “addressed.” Fleet Decision Watch: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Mesfin Tasew Bekele says a decision on an order for 25 smaller jets (A220, Embraer E-2, and Boeing 737 MAX 7) could come within three months, aimed at domestic and nearby regional routes. Elections & Credibility: Ethiopia’s election count continues amid delays and contested digital material; the National Election Board dismissed two staff for procedural violations while reporting a “mostly successful” process and a turnout figure of 40 million pending verification. IMF Support: The IMF is stepping up financing for Ethiopia and other African states to manage fallout from the US-Iran war, including accelerated access to a $200m tranche for Ethiopia. Energy Connectivity: Ethiopian Electric Power says Ethiopia is pushing renewable power and regional grid links, supplying Djibouti, Sudan and Kenya and exploring sales to Tanzania. Humanitarian Logistics: UNICEF warns that disrupted transport routes and higher costs are delaying aid to children, with vaccine air freight costs up 50–70% for shipments to Ethiopia and other countries. Green Assets Rules: Ethiopia is drafting a centralized carbon market framework that sets the federal government as default owner of carbon rights, shaping how local forest owners and developers trade credits. EV Momentum: Nordic partners signal support for Ethiopia’s electric mobility push ahead of COP32, with investment and technology transfer plans. Digital Payments: EthSwitch reports reaching 1 million daily EthioPay-IPS transactions, winning an African financial inclusion award.

IMF Support: The IMF says it is stepping up and accelerating financial support for Ethiopia and other African states hit by the US–Israel war’s spillovers, with Ethiopia set for an additional $200m tranche under its existing program. Energy Connectivity: Ethiopian Electric Power says Ethiopia will keep pushing regional power links, with renewable generation fully powering exports to Djibouti, Sudan and Kenya and talks aimed at Tanzania. Industrial Parks Push: Ethiopia’s Industrial Parks Development Corporation rolls out reduced service fees and four years of free access to selected parks to help domestic manufacturers start faster, hire more, and strengthen supply chains. Carbon Rights Framework: A draft federal proclamation is moving to centralize forest carbon rights management, setting the government as default owner of carbon outcomes unless contracts say otherwise. E-Mobility Competition: Nordic partners back Ethiopia’s EV ambitions ahead of COP32, while Yadea expands electric motorcycle competition in East Africa with battery-swapping models (Kenya entry noted). Digital Payments: EthSwitch reports hitting 1 million daily EthioPay-IPS transactions, signaling momentum in financial inclusion. Election Count Under Scrutiny: Ethiopia’s electoral board dismisses two employees for procedural violations as vote counting continues amid delays and disputed digital material.

Energy Connectivity: Ethiopian Electric Power CEO Ashebir Balcha says Ethiopia will keep strengthening regional power links, with renewable generation fully powering exports to Djibouti, Sudan and Kenya, and studies underway to reach Tanzania. E-Mobility Push: Nordic partners back Ethiopia’s EV ambitions ahead of COP32, while UNECA says Ethiopia’s e-mobility strategy cuts emissions and reduces reliance on imported fuel. Industrial Policy for Local Firms: Ethiopia’s Industrial Parks Development Corporation rolls out reduced service fees and four years of free industrial-park access to help domestic manufacturers scale and build supply chains. Carbon Rights Framework: A draft federal proclamation is moving toward centralized management of Ethiopia’s forest and atmospheric carbon assets, setting the government as default owner of carbon rights unless contracts say otherwise. Electric Two-Wheelers Competition: China’s Yadea enters Kenya with five e-motorcycle models and a battery-swapping ecosystem, aiming to scale beyond its Ethiopia footprint. Regional Trade Lifeline: A look at the Djibouti–Ethiopia corridor highlights how port activity and transit revenues tie both economies together. Skills & Tech Partnerships: Afretec expands with Addis Ababa Science and Technology University as its 10th partner, boosting engineering and digital collaboration. Health & Preparedness: Africa CDC and WHO launch a six-month Ebola preparedness and response plan for Kenya, backed by a push to raise US$518m.

UNECA Diplomacy & Skills: UNECA in Addis Ababa hosted Russian Language Day ahead of June 6, spotlighting people-to-people ties, education and culture with Russia’s ambassador and UN partners. Banking Expansion: Standard Bank East Africa says it wants to become the region’s biggest bank by 2030, targeting 2 million clients and doubling earnings across Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Malawi. Industrial Policy for Local Firms: Ethiopia’s Industrial Parks Development Corporation (IDPC) will cut service fees and offer four years of free access to selected industrial parks to help domestic manufacturers scale up jobs and supply chains. Tech & University Linkages: Afretec signed its 10th university partner, Addis Ababa Science and Technology University, expanding pan-African engineering and digital collaboration. E-Mobility & Climate: UNECA says Ethiopia’s e-mobility strategy supports a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy by reducing emissions and dependence on imported fossil fuels. Regional Energy Integration: GERD was framed as a catalyst for Horn of Africa cooperation and regional integration at Assosa University’s research conference. EV Market Watch: China’s Yadea entered Kenya’s e-motorcycle market with battery-swapping models, partnering locally for infrastructure access. Health Preparedness: WHO and Africa CDC launched a joint Ebola preparedness and response plan for Kenya, covering surveillance, labs, logistics and community engagement. Trade & Services: Smart Hands Africa was appointed an authorised Supermicro services partner, expanding post-sales support across multiple African countries including Ethiopia.

Digital Payments & Inclusion: EthSwitch says it hit 1 million EthioPay-IPS transactions in a single day, worth over 5 billion birr, and won an African financial inclusion technology award with BPC. Industrial Parks for Local Firms: IDPC will cut service fees and offer four years of free access to selected industrial parks to eligible domestic manufacturers, aiming to grow supply chains and jobs. E-Mobility & Climate: UNECA’s director links Ethiopia’s e-mobility strategy to lower emissions, better energy efficiency, and reduced dependence on imported fossil fuels. Tech Services Expansion: Smart Hands Africa became an authorised Supermicro services partner, offering installation, maintenance, break-fix support and consulting across multiple African markets including Ethiopia. Trade & Investment Outlook: Indonesia is expanding Sub-Saharan trade partnerships, with Ethiopia among the countries at talks in Jakarta. Regional Growth Lens: A UN report highlights East Africa as Africa’s fastest-growing sub-region in 2026, with Ethiopia and Kenya driven by reforms, integration and renewable power build-out. Energy Security Pressure: The IMF is stepping up support for Ethiopia and other African states amid fallout from the US-Iran conflict, including fertilizer and energy-linked shocks. Mobility Market Signals: Yadea entered Kenya’s market with a commercial electric motorcycle, after selling over 48,000 units in Ethiopia. Misinformation Watch: A viral Facebook claim about Eid prayers violence in Tigray was debunked; the clip actually shows peaceful Eid prayers in Harar.

Digital Payments Surge: EthSwitch says EthioPay-IPS hit 1 million transactions in a single day worth over 5 billion birr, alongside The Asian Banker’s “Best Financial Inclusion Technology Initiative in Africa for 2026” award. Education & Workforce: Ethiopia’s parliament approved the 2026/27 budget, including funding to absorb 20,000 intern teachers into permanent, pensionable roles. Agri-Trade & Food Security: BRICS agricultural trade cooperation is framed as a resilience play as members expand and push shared food governance priorities. Climate & Land Restoration: The Great Green Wall highlights slower-than-expected progress but renewed focus on restoring degraded land across Sahel countries, including Ethiopia. Macroeconomic Support: The IMF stepped up support for Ethiopia via an accelerated access proposal tied to the ECF review, aiming to unlock about $468m in additional financing. Energy & Industry Context: A US petition targets Ethiopia-linked solar supply chains with new trade enforcement moves, adding pressure to export-oriented manufacturing. Livelihoods for Pastoral Areas: Parliament ratified ADB/IDA loans for pastoral food and livelihood improvement and scaling the Productive Safety Net Program.

Digital Payments: EthSwitch hit 1 million EthioPay-IPS transactions in a single day, topping ETB 5bn and earning a top financial inclusion tech award for Ethiopia’s instant payments push. IMF Support: Ethiopia secured an IMF staff-level deal for the fifth review of its reform program, paving the way for about USD 468m in additional financing as inflation eases. Energy & Power Reliability: A Kenya electricity supply crisis is blamed on failure to follow the Least Cost Power Development Plan, with continued power imports from Ethiopia. Public Finance for Resilience: Ethiopia’s House ratified ADB and IDA loan agreements for pastoral food and livelihood upgrades and the Productive Safety Net Program, including water, veterinary services, land management, agribusiness and renewable options. Local Industry & Construction: Ethiopia unveiled an 80% local participation plan to cut reliance on foreign contractors, aiming to grow domestic contractor capacity for major infrastructure tenders. EV & Mobility Investment: Spiro raised $215m to expand battery-swapping EV infrastructure across Africa, with Ethiopia flagged for further rollout. Trade & Agriculture: Ethiopia’s election coverage continues amid security disruptions, while Ethiopia also appears in global policy discussions on food loss and BRICS food agendas.